By The Restoration HQ desk · · filed under Money & Consolidation
Labor: the ICE chilling effect gets quantified
An NBER paper now finds ICE enforcement measurably cut construction labor supply. The chilling effect is estimated at 7+ workers leaving employment for every 1 detention. The industry needs 349K to 500K workers in 2026; 45% of contractors had at least one delayed project. Separately, ABC's construction backlog indicator slipped in June though contractors stayed confident.
FORLock in and train your crews now, the shops that hoard skilled labor will own the CAT seasons nobody else can staff.
AGAINSTCarriers price labor like it's 2019 while the actual supply contracts, the Xactimate labor number is more fictional every month.
Consensus vs. contrarianContrarian: you now have an NBER citation for your labor-rate supplement. Document local wage reality and make the carrier's stale number the fight.
Sources NBER study via ConstructConnect, news.constructconnect.com/ice-enforcement-cu… AGC/NCCER survey, www.agc.org/news/2025/08/28/construction-wor… ABC backlog slips, www.candrmagazine.com/abcs-construction-back… ()