ICE enforcement plus an aging workforce is the labor crisis nobody's pricing in
Archive story from the 2026-05-30 edition. This is the reporting as filed; source publication and event dates may differ. Check the dated storyline for subsequent developments.
Construction needs about 349,000 net new workers this year while ICE enforcement disrupted more than a quarter of surveyed firms.
Construction needs ~349,000 net new workers in 2026 just to hold steady. Immigrants are 34% of the construction workforce and 60%+ in drywall, roofing, and plaster. A joint AGC/NCCER survey found 28% of firms hit by ICE-related disruption in the prior six months, with timelines stretching.
Why it matters
Your subs and crews come from the exact trades getting hit hardest. Labor scarcity raises your costs while carriers fight you on labor rates in the estimate, squeezing both ends.
Our assessment
The obvious response to a labor shortage is to pay more and hope it holds. Do that, and also turn the shortage into an estimating argument, because the price list is still quoting a labor market that no longer exists. Pull three local wage quotes for drywall, roofing and plaster, attach them to your next large loss, and make the stale labor rate the carrier's problem.
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Trade press / Association High confidence at publication