By The Restoration HQ desk · · filed under Money & Consolidation
Claims are fewer but far bigger, LexisNexis puts a number on the shift
LexisNexis's annual home report found homeowners claim severity jumped 25.9% year over year in 2025 to an all-time high, up 93.2% versus 2019, while claim frequency fell 23.8%. Fire and lightning losses surged 76.8% (driven by the January 2025 LA wildfires), and catastrophe claims made up 51% of all claims for the year.
FORBig losses pay better and reward the shops that can actually handle scope, documentation, and large-loss project management. This data is a green light to move upmarket.
AGAINSTFrequency down 24% means the everyday work that keeps your crews busy between catastrophes is disappearing, and you can't run a company on three big jobs a year. Plan for the dry stretches now.
Consensus vs. contrarianConsensus reads this as a climate/inflation story about carriers. The contrarian read for operators: frequency isn't just falling because weather changed, it's falling because prevention tech and tighter underwriting are deliberately removing the small-loss dispatch. Severity-up/frequency-down isn't a weather chart, it's your addressable market being re-cut, and the winners will be built for large-loss, not for chasing water calls.
Sources Claims Journal, www.claimsjournal.com/news/national/2026/07/… (published ); Insurance Journal, www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2026/… (published ). Underlying: LexisNexis Risk Solutions 2026 U.S. Home Trends Report.