PE consolidation gets a number, and RIA organizes the independents
Archive story from the 2026-05-30 edition. This is the reporting as filed; source publication and event dates may differ. Check the dated storyline for subsequent developments.
Industry watchers now peg 15,000 firms shrinking below 10,000 by 2030, and RIA has launched a task force for independents.
Industry-watchers now peg the field at ~15,000 firms shrinking to under 10,000 by 2030, with multiples running 3x-11x and named platform deals continuing (Montera-backed Midwest Remediation, American Restoration trading PE-to-PE). RIA responded in Feb 2026 by launching a "Voice of the Independent" task force whose advisory board is explicitly limited to firms that are neither franchised nor PE-backed.
Why it matters
This is the central question for every independent operator: scale on your own terms or sell into the roll-up. And the industry's own association just planted a flag for the independents.
Our assessment
The standard advice is that consolidation is inevitable, so take the multiple while the multiples are good. The better seat is the one nobody markets: run your shop on a platform's systems and keep your own name on the door, and you capture platform margins without a platform's mandates. Pick one process this quarter, document it to acquisition standard, and watch your close rate.
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Press/Advisory + Association Medium confidence at publication